Time for NAB Reality Check

Time for NAB Reality Check

Andy Marken April 30, 2024

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Above image source - Allegiant, Summit Entertainment

Great leaders don't seek power. They're called by necessity. Johanna, Allegiant, Summit Entertainment, 2016

The great thing about the NAB show (heck, any trade show) is that there's a solid mix of real stuff, sorta' good ideas and downright whimsical wishes.

Don't believe us?

Years ago, we came away from CES swearing to gawd 3D and 4K was going to be things now!

3D was a wish and caused us to endure a bunch of really awful 3D films.

4K was beautifully fantastic but the infrastructure was still heavily invested in HD and the distribution infrastructure was barely beyond dial up.

But consumer goods folks are always focused on telling you how great things are going to be when the infrastructure is there to support it.

It has taken years of technological improvement, price reductions and investment to make it real.

In fact today, most projects are shot in 8K and 12K even though the pipes don't have the bandwidth to deliver flawlessly.

Producers and studios just want to futureproof projects for tomorrow.

And yes, downscaling a project from 8K/12K to 4K does make for a better show/film to watch, enjoy.

It's hard to determine what is real and what is wishful thinking when you're caught up in the excitement, wishful thinking of the show.

At NAB or IBC, it's pretty easy to slip into the rabbit hole and just know that what you saw on the show floor or heard in one of the sessions is going to be available for you to use and enjoy soon.

We covered a lot of the highlights last week but have one that straddles the boundaries of reality and - in our opinion - fantasy virtual.

Virtual production is real with many benefits and capabilities. No wonder Sony devoted a big chunk of its floor space to highlighting its end-to-end solution.

Virtual Production - Sony highlighted its large and small video wall products at the show which gives a project a choice rather than go big or go home.

Sony's latest virtual video walls showed how massive video walls are cool; but not every production needs a 100-plus-foot virtual production facility and in many instances smaller, more easily reconfigured sets are more than equal to the task and can reduce a film's production cost, including remote shoots which reduces the carbon footprint making it a win-win for everyone.

Okay, virtual production isn't the knock your socks off' stuff you come to see at NAB.

It's just the new normal and it's setting the stage for some spectacular work.

Of course, if you're ready to get in on the ground floor of the virtual world, nothing beats a 3D VR camera set-up.

All In - Folks have been discussing and displaying VR creation/production tools for years, even demonstrating solutions with an iPhone, Vision Pro; but let's just say it's still a work in progress.

And to see what the camera sees, you obviously need a VR headset and it's okay for a few minutes and sometimes even a half-hour.

After that, you're cut off from the real world.

VR Isolation - VR content enjoyment has been projected to sweep the market for years and there are a lot of very good applications but a headset in every home is still years away if at all.

Apple's Vision Pro and Meta's clunky Quest 3 will both be in firm display and usage at this year's Paris Olympics by digital natives to highlight next-generation engagement.

But that doesn't mean it's ready for primetime or that the world will rush to get (and use) their headsets for everything.

Reality - Every year, a number of market analysts project that VR headset sales will be growing rapidly in the next few years, and where there are solid applications for the devices. Sitting at home or walking around in your entertainment probably isn't one of them.

VR headset/sales reached their pinnacle back in 2021when Meta's Zuck pronounced the world would soon be working, living the Metaverse.

Needless to say, people just haven't been hungry for a mind-blowing experience.

But there are some excellent VR games.

We have friends who think nothing of strapping on a headset for a couple of hours to pit their talents against the worst the universe has to throw at them.

Yeah, they're awesome. Emerge with their headset imprint and you know they were victorious.

There are also some outstanding VR applications in education, training (engineering, healthcare training/treatments, immersive/realistic job training, and more).

If you're not put off by living in isolation with folks in your household or people giggling when they see your VR headset imprint; that's fine, but you won't be in the majority no matter how many great films you create/talk about.

It's neat, but we're years plus away from volume profits. There's also the hard fact that the build-out of 5G population coverage is presently about 45 percent and will be around 85 percent by 2029.

7G Coming - The Wi-Fi Alliance announced that all of the specifications for 7G standards and a few analysts have already projected fantastic sales in the next few years. However, the 5G infrastructure hasn't been completed in many countries around the globe and wireless service providers are just beginning to monetize earlier investments before they make the next leap. Actually, 5G delivers great performance for most day-to-day applications.

Now we appreciate that the Wi-Fi Alliance - and several analysts - announced that Wi-Fi 7 had already hit $1B even before it's official launch and will hit $24+B by 2030 but forgive us if are a little skeptical that the transformation to tomorrow's transformation will happen soon.

According to Parks Associates, you alrea

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